Revisiting my 2004 New Year's predictions has been a humbling experience -- not because I got everything wrong, but because of what I got right. I predicted George W. Bush would win a second term, but was far too generous estimating the margin of his victory. Indeed, one could argue that the 2004 election was closer than the 2000 contest. Given the pluses of incumbency, the fact that John Kerry could be looking forward to his inauguration in a couple of weeks if fewer than 60,000 Ohioans had switched their votes is astounding.
On the Democratic side, I was wrong assuming that Howard Dean would be the standard bearer, but I had the actual ticket, Kerry and Edwards, down as the only likely veeps.
And I was right that Osama bin Laden and Fidel Castro are still alive and at large, and Ahmed Chalabi, though buffeted, remains a figure in Iraq politics. I erred, though, thinking Enron's Ken Lay would not be indicted -- he still seems a long way from suffering even Martha Stewart's fate.
All in all, my less-than-perfect record at the beginning of '04 has made me wary of predicting anything in '05, but I will.
The grimmest predictions are the safest: Our military will be still protecting whatever rickety government emerges from the Iraqi elections, and the death toll of Americans by year's end will reach 2,000. All along, I have predicted that the body politic will accept the same number of casualties that was experienced on 9/11, roughly 3,000, before rebelling.
That should give Bush another two years to carry on his freedom-building, oil-protecting, geopolitical experiment in Iraq before domestic discontent forces him to change his policies -- just before the buildup to the 2008 election.
In that vein, Dick Cheney may find it appropriate to retire, citing health problems, allowing for a designated heir to take his place -- one who could then achieve national prominence and the Republican nomination to come. Perhaps as a reward for keeping his state red, Gov. Bob Taft of Ohio will get the nod, and thereby continue the dynastic tradition of the Bushes.
President Bush will get to name at least one Supreme Court justice, and he will go for his most extreme selection the first time out of the gate, so that any other appointments to the high court he gets to make will seem to be quite reasonable and moderate.
Social Security will not be privatized in '05, but it may be closer to that in '06, after all the debate that will be conducted, and if Republicans gain seats in Congress in the mid-term elections, it will happen in '07, even though the amount of transition costs alone needed to implement the so-called private accounts would make Social Security solvent in perpetuity. But privatizers want to change Social Security into Medicare, the system with real problems, given the endlessly rising costs the private sector saddles it with, while the Republican-controlled Congress forbids the government to use its collective-buying muscle.
Democrats will remain too predictable. The party will continue to be split between the values proponents and its progressive, secular wing. Republicans have managed to make both ends of its party harmonious in national elections, but it isn't in the Democratic soul to be so accommodating.
Abortion will continue to be used as a wedge to separate Democrats. It will be a club wielded by warring factions and will provide Republicans with great comfort as they watch Democrats bloody themselves over an issue Republicans have eliminated from their party's internal discussions.
Housing bubbles in speculative real estate markets will not pop, but shrink, resulting in record foreclosures and bankruptcies. Consumer debt will expand; savings rates will continue to decline. In other words, the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer. Any good news?
Individual acts of bravery and generosity will continue. Reporting itself may well become less partisan and more measured for at least a few months this year. Commentary, however, will not let go of its sharp, ragged edge. However, as in '04, I could be wrong -- and, on a few things, I hope I am.